Where Do Trends Go To Die?

Brand Strategist Kate Irving Talks TikTok Fatigue, Shein’s Collapse, and Why Clarity Beats Chaos in Today’s Brand Landscape

Where do trends go to die? Usually somewhere between a desperate TikTok repost and a warehouse full of unsold micro-skirts. In an age where every brand is scrambling to catch the next viral wave, strategist Kate Irving of Moonshot is here to tell us why playing the algorithm’s game over emotional intelligence is a losing strategy. Join us as she breaks down the new rules of relevance—and why some of the smartest moves in fashion right now involve slowing down, going niche, or even (gasp) logging off.

I’ve been working on a series about the end of trends, and you were one of the first people I wanted to speak to. I discovered your work through Moonshot’s “Inside Papers” and LinkedIn. Before we get into trend-specific questions, can I ask: How difficult is it to shape strategies for fashion brands today? Do they require something very unique?

Yes—it can be pretty tricky. I’d say it’s gotten a lot more complicated in the last five or six years, especially post-COVID. There are just so many more variables than there used to be, and so much more data available, which is great. But for those of us in insights and research, it means casting a really wide net to try and understand everything: the competitive landscape, culture, politics, the news cycle, and celebrity. It’s a lot to track.

For brands, that can be incredibly overwhelming, especially if they don’t have someone (internally or externally) to help them make sense of what’s relevant for them. Trend forecasting used to be a macro job; now it’s extremely bespoke. So the trick is doing the upfront work to understand what a brand should be paying attention to—and what it can ignore.

I recently read your insight about how “trend chasing is a losing strategy.” I completely agree. But can you explain the rationale behind that view?

Absolutely. It comes back to the pace of things and the overwhelming volume of information. When brands put themselves in the position of reacting constantly—to TikTok, to what’s trending on Instagram—they’re giving up their own strategic control to algorithms and platforms. They’re no longer leading their businesses; they’re letting the algorithm dictate decisions. That’s a bad strategy.

It’s also expensive. We’ve seen brands miss the mark when chasing trends quickly, and that damages trust. If a customer visits your store and your brand has a different persona each time, there’s no chance to build a long-term relationship. Trust breaks down.

Also, fast-fashion giants like Shein and Temu confused the industry for a while. Some brands thought that the model was aspirational. But I don’t agree. I don’t think they represent sustainable or lasting business models.

So what, specifically, do you think is unsustainable about the Shein model?

From a logistics standpoint, they’re about to lose their de minimis loophole in the U.S., which allows them to ship directly from China without import taxes. That changes next week. Beyond that, they’re vulnerable to being regulated out of existence, especially in Europe. If laws change to require companies to be responsible for end-of-life garments or limit overproduction, it could become impossible for them to operate.

And from a brand perspective, you can’t build loyalty if your product disappoints customers regularly. Customer acquisition is expensive. If you’re constantly losing people after their first purchase, you’ll struggle to survive.

On the flip side, is there a brand—big or niche—that you think is getting it right?

Yes! I just posted a video about this, actually—H&M. They’re doing an excellent job. With a new CEO in place, they’ve made product improvement their core strategy. They’ve hired strong design talent, brought in a new creative director, and shifted their internal structure to trust their designers.

Their Spring collection this year was a bold, fashion-forward move, and almost completely sold out. I couldn’t even get the pieces I wanted! They know their customer very well, and they’re taking calculated risks that still feel true to her. They’ve also raised price points on some items and created a wider range of pricing, which is smart. Instead of competing with Shein, they’re playing an entirely different game.

Plus, with many luxury brands pricing out their customers, there’s now white space in that “upper-mass” tier—and H&M is moving into it with confidence.

That’s interesting because I was just thinking about Zara. Do you think they’re doing something similar?

Yes, I’ve noticed that too. Their Kate Moss collections have had incredibly high price points. It’s a smart move, but Zara can feel a little less accessible. They tell so many stories at once that it can get confusing. That’s their M.O., sure, but H&M told a really clear, compelling story this season—and as a customer, I responded to that clarity.

Do you think a brand can stay completely off social media today and still thrive?

Funny you ask—I was just discussing this with a friend in PR. I’m intrigued. If there’s a brand I can only discover through word of mouth, I want to know about it. That “if you know, you know” appeal is strong.

But you have to be okay with being niche. Your growth will be slower, which is fine, but in today’s market, especially if there’s investment involved, there’s a lot of pressure to scale fast. You can build a profitable business offline, but it’s a long game. And yes, that requires investing in real-life events and community-building, especially post-COVID.

Speaking of big moves, what do you think of the new appointment of Demna as creative director? I’ve been asking everyone this.

I was surprised. I’ve been trying to understand the logic behind it. It’s tricky. I didn’t react to “Oh, this is going to be great,” like I did when Clare Waight Keller went to Uniqlo. That felt like a natural match. This one? I’m not sure.

In one of your writings, you mention that consumers are feeling fatigued when it comes to shopping. Do you think people are truly tired of overconsumption, or is minimalism just another trend? Will the pendulum swing back?

I think it depends on the segment. I work mostly with brands in the mass or slightly elevated consumer space, and in that world, yes—people are reassessing their relationship with shopping.

In the U.S., that’s largely driven by the economy. Inflation, political tensions, and ongoing uncertainty have caused people to pause. Some are looking at how much they spent last year and realizing it wasn’t sustainable. For others, shopping has become politicized—they want to know who they’re supporting with their money.

So yes, there’s real fatigue. And in some cases, it’s a catalyst for more thoughtful consumption—shopping vintage, buying less, re-wearing. It’s a very real trend, at least for now.

You work with fashion brands from mid-tier to elevated levels. What would you say is unique about your approach to strategy?

I spend a lot of time upfront helping brands deeply understand their customer. Many brands have demographic data, but they don’t understand psychographics—or emotional drivers. And in fashion, emotion drives everything: purchases, loyalty, brand perception.

I like working in the “gray areas”—exploring how people want to feel when they get dressed, or when they wear a certain label. It’s not black and white. But if you can understand those emotional cues, you can build a really strong strategy that connects with people.

Brands are often too close to themselves to see this clearly, so that’s where I come in. It’s complex, but it’s also where the magic happens.

That’s fascinating. I’ve been considering writing a Substack piece about emotion in fashion. It's such a key theme—it affects how we walk, talk, and feel.

Absolutely. Even people who say they don’t care about fashion are still deciding how to present themselves. What we wear says so much about who we are, and that’s what I love exploring.

Katie Irving is the founder of MOONSHOT, a fashion innovation studio helping brands navigate what's next through creative strategy, whitespace forecasting, and future-focused concept work.